【登载媒体】时代周刊
【来源地址】http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1835996,00.html
【译者】erihao
【声明】本翻译仅供Anti-CNN使用，谢绝转载
【原文】
With the Chinese media gushing over the success of the Olympics, the latest issue of Southern Window— a highbrow news magazine with a circulation of 500,000 — caught myeye. The cover illustration features a couple of law textbooks and ateacher with a wooden pointer giving instruction to a businessman and agovernment official. The coverline: "Rule of Law Starts With Limitationof Power." Sounds boring? In China, it's almost revolutionary.
The Chinese Communist Party wasn't explicitly mentioned, but since itholds virtually all of the power in China, the articles were clearlyabout how to limit the party's all-pervasive reach and allow theChinese people some wiggle room. Anything that touches on limiting thepower of the party is extremely sensitive — and often very dangerous.So amid the euphoria of the Olympics, it was pretty gutsy of Southern Windowto publish stories with headlines like, "When Administrative PowerObstructs the Law" and "Putting 'Boxing Gloves' on Police Powers."
The magazine's editors have fired an opening shot in a debatethat started the moment the closing ceremony's last firework exploded:What now for China? Will party hardliners, emboldened by the world'stimid response to their brutal pre-Games crackdown on dissent, continueto tighten their grip on power? Or will the spirit of volunteerism andcommunity that arose after the May earthquake in Sichuan be revived?Could reform-minded party officials — like those who approved thepublication of Southern Window's special issue — gain ground in their drive to loosen control over areas such as the courts and the media?
Not all Chinese are asking those questions at this very minute;many are basking in the residual glow from all those fireworks and goldmedals. Despite numerous controversies ahead of the Games — turmoilover the Olympic torch relay, the bloody suppression of Tibetan riotsin March, and so on — the Games went spectacularly smoothly. Seniorparty cadres can give themselves a pat on the back for a job well done.
Not for long, though. It is hard to exaggerate just how important theanswers to those fundamental questions will be for China. Chinesesociety has reached a point where maintaining the status quo is simplynot an option. Beijing is barely able to keep a lid on the tremendoussocial dislocation caused by the country's pell-mell economic growthover the past 30 years, and the consequent misery suffered by untoldmillions — the unemployed, the landless, tens of millions of migrantworkers laboring under inhuman conditions, the countless victims ofwidespread corruption. Government officials have acknowledged that upto hundreds of so-called mass incidents occur every day. These oftenviolent eruptions of frustration occasionally threaten to spread intochaos; as the Olympics loomed, they were more tightly controlled, oroften simply ignored by the media. Now that the Games are over, it's agood bet that the turmoil will resurface.
"There are serious issues that have been accumulating, including ethnicproblems in Tibet and Xinjiang, as well as social issues and conflictsthat have been temporarily covered up by force to guarantee a'successful Olympics,' " says He Weifang, a Peking University lawprofessor and reform advocate. "I cannot predict whether there will bean immediate outbreak of all these problems after the Olympics. Butthere will be an outbreak if the government does not take steps totackle the domestic problems."
For President Hu Jintao, who made the successful staging of theGames the centerpiece of his presidency, a moment of truth looms. Hewill face mounting pressure to loosen the party's grip on power.Nicholas Bequelin, China researcher for Human Rights Watch in New YorkCity, believes the pre-Olympics tightening of controls is actuallycontributing to rising social discord. "The pressure is building in thepressure cooker, and there's no current avenue for it to be released. Ibelieve we will see many calls both inside and outside the party to putsome sort of reforms on the agenda again," Bequelin says.
Nor is the pressure for change coming only from themarginalized. Those who have benefited the most from China's boomingeconomy, in the swelling urban middle class, are also increasinglypushing the authorities to grant them more rights and freedoms. It's acontagious process. Last year's protests by thousands of citizens inthe coastal city of Xiamen against plans to build a billion-dollarchemical factory ultimately forced the cancellation of the project. Andthe protests directly sparked copycat demonstrations against plannedmega-projects in Shanghai as well as Chengdu in Sichuan province, whichoccurred just a few days before the earthquake devastated the region inMay. "Chinese are trying to get government off their backs," saysBequelin. "This has nothing to do with the legitimacy of the CommunistParty or debates about political systems."
The Games taught us that pressure from the outside world on issues likehuman rights and civil society has little effect on Beijing. Now it'sup to the Chinese people to take matters into their own hands andreally begin the building of the new China.
【译文】
中国下一步向何处去
当中国的媒体正在为奥运会的成功而欢庆之时，最进一期的《南风窗》——一份发行量500000份面向知识分子的时事报导刊物吸引了我的注意。封面上的图案显示了两本法律书籍，以及一名手持木教鞭的教师为商人和政府官员授课。封面标题为《法制，从限权开始》。听起来无聊吧？而在中国，这是几乎是革命性的。
文中并没提到中国共产党，但由于它实际上控制了中国所有的权力，因此这篇文章的内容很明显，是关于如何限制中共权力全面延伸以及给予中国人某些自由空间。任何涉及到限制共产党权力的事情都是极端敏感的——并且是非常危险的。因此当为奥运而沉醉之时，《南风窗》能够采用标题为《当行政力量阻碍法律》和《给警察戴上“拳击手套”》的文章，是相当具有勇气的。（本人查阅了这期《南风窗》，没有此类题目，译者注。）
在奥运闭幕式最后一个礼花发射时，这本杂志的编辑们已经叩响了辩论的第一枪：中国现在需要什么？党内强硬派会继续加紧攫取权力么？由于对奥运前中共镇压不同政见者世界做出了胆怯的反应，这使得他们更加大胆。或者说，在5月四川地震中迸发出的志愿精神和市民社会精神会重新复兴么？具有改革意志的政府官员——比如像那些批准《南风窗》发行的官员，他们放松司法和媒体管制的努力能取得进展么？
恰逢此时并不是所有中国人都会问这些问题；许多人仍然沐浴在焰火和金牌的光辉之下。尽管奥运之前出现了许多争端——火炬传递风波，3月对西藏暴乱的血腥镇压等等，赛会依然壮观和顺利。党内的高级官员们能为他们任务成功而庆贺一番了。
尽管如此，庆祝时间不会太久。无需夸大这些根本问题的答案对中国是何等重要。中国社会已经到了一个临界点，而保持现状不再是现成的选择。北京几乎不能再去掩盖过去30年无序经济增长所产生的巨大社会错位，以及由此所导致的千百万人的悲惨境遇——失业，无家可归，几千万外出劳工在不人道的条件下工作，普遍性的腐败产生了无数受害者。政府官员已经承认，高达百人组成的所谓“群体性事件”每天都在发生。这些由于挫折产生的暴力发泄时而会演化成大的骚乱；当奥运会临近时，它们被更严厉的管制，或被媒体完全忽略。现在奥运已经结束，我敢打赌骚乱将再次出现。
“有许多长期积累的严重问题，包括新疆和西藏的种族矛盾，以及为了奥运成功被强行掩盖的社会问题和冲突，”北京大学法学教授、改革拥护者贺卫方说。“我不能预测所有这些问题在奥运会后是否会立即爆发。但是如果政府不采取措施应对国内问题，会有事情发生的。”
胡锦涛主席已经使奥运的成功举办成为他主席生涯的核心装饰，对他而言，真相揭晓的时机渐行渐近。他将面临要求放松党对权力的控制方面不断增强的压力。纽约“人权观察”中国问题研究员Nicholas Bequelin相信奥运前加强管制增加了社会不满。“压力在压力锅里集聚，没有释放的通道。我相信我们将看到许多来自于党内和党外的呼吁，要求将此类改革提上日程。”他说。
要求变革的压力不只来自于被边缘化的群体。那些已经从中国急速发展中收益最多的人——不断膨胀的城市中产阶级，也逐渐推动当局授予其更多权利和自由。这是个逐渐蔓延的进程。去年在海滨城市厦门，数千人市民抗议兴建投资额10亿美元的化工厂，迫使当局取消了该项目。抗议直接触发了上海和四川成都类似的示威游行以反对在当地计划兴建的项目，这就发生在5月地震在该区地肆虐之前。“中国人正试图让政府不再控制他们，”Bequelin说，“这与共产党的合法性或政治体制无关。”
奥运会告诉我们，外部世界施加的诸如人权和市民社会等压力对北京没多大影响。现在应该轮到中国人民亲自出马并真的开始建设一个新中国了。
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本帖最后由 erihao 于 2008-8-26 23:57 编辑 ]
