【标题】来自中国出口增速下降的冲击
【来源】
http://business.theage.com.au/shock-as-china-export-growth-falls-20080710-3d5z.html
【翻译】erihao（ACEO成员）
【说明】
ACEO=ANTI-CNN Economic Observer (anti-cnn经济观察)
【声明】本文翻译仅限Anti-CNN使用，谢绝转载。
【原文】
Shock as China export growth falls
CHINESE export growth has slowed to its lowest rate in at least five years, raising new risks for the world economy.
China's export volumes grew just 7 per cent in the year to June - down from sustained growth rates above 20 per cent before the middle of last year - and they are likely to fall further as key markets in the United States and Europe continue to deteriorate.
"It's signalling that by the end of the year we'll have zero export growth," said Stephen Green, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai.
China's gross domestic product grew 11.9 per cent last year, of which net exports made up 2.6 percentage points.
Yesterday'sfigures show the volume of Chinese imports rose 9 per cent from a year earlier.
But the "real" trade figures mask a larger income shock caused by China's rapidly deteriorating terms of trade.
Exports for the year to June rose 17.6 per cent in US dollar values while imports soared 31 per cent, as China begins to cover huge new price rises for iron ore as well as other imported commodities, like oil.
"China's terms of trade is deteriorating quite rapidly; it's quite the opposite of Australia," said the chief Asia economist for Citigroup, Huang Yiping. "You just shift the denominator and the numerator for Australia."
Li Jian, an economist with the Academy of International Trade and Economic Co-operation under the Ministry of Commerce, said China's small and middle-sized enterprises were hurting.
"The accelerated appreciation of the yuan, a funds shortage, continued price rises of raw materials and labour cost increases have forced more and more enterprises into financial loss or bankruptcy," he told Xinhua news agency.
But investment is strong, consumer spending rising and many experts say the export slowdown is helping to rebalance the economy for more sustainable growth.
"The trade surplus reached about 11 per cent of GDP last year - it had to adjust," said Song Guoqing, of Peking University, one of China's most respected economists.
"There is some probability that the economy will slow too quickly, but also that inflation will persist for some time," said Professor Song. "That suggests to me that policy is just about right."
China's huge monthly trade surplus fell to $US21.4 billion ($22.3 billion) in the month and $US58.1 billion for the June quarter - down 11.9 per cent from a year earlier.
Leaked inflation numbers suggest consumer prices rose 7.1 per cent in the year to June, down from a peak of 8.7 per cent earlier in the year.
Food prices appear to have peaked and the Government is able to dampen rising import prices with subsidies and price controls on energy and grain.
Next week's GDP figures are likely to show reported growth has slowed to about 10 per cent.
"A little bit of a slowdown is a good thing," said Dr Huang. "The question is how much."
【翻译】
中国出口增长放缓的冲击
中国出口增长已放缓达至少5年内的最低增长率，为世界经济带来新危机。
至今年6月，中国出口量只增长7% - 从去年逾20%的年中可持续增长率下滑 - 随着美国和欧洲等主要市场持续恶化，下滑很可能继续。
上海的标准渣打银行经济师斯蒂芬.格林说：“它预警明年底以前将有零出口增长率。”
去年，中国国民生产总值（GDP）增长了11.9%，其中2.6个百分点为净出口。
昨天的数据显示中国进口量比去年同期增长了9%。
但是由于中国贸易收支快速恶化，“实际”贸易数据掩盖中国更大幅的收入锐减。
今年截至6月份止，出口按美元折算上升了17.6%，而进口则因中国开始须支付高涨的铁矿及其他如原油等商品的新价格而飙升了31%。
花旗集团的亚洲首席经济师黄一平(音译)指出：“中国的贸易收支正在快速恶化，而澳洲却刚好相反, 你只需将分子和分母倒置就是澳洲情况了。”
隶属商务部的国际经贸合作协会的经济师李建(音译)指出中国的中小企业正首当其冲。
他告诉新华社说：“人民币的快速升值、资金短缺、原材料和工资成本上升已经使愈来愈多的企业出现财务亏损或破产”。
但投资依然强劲, 消费持续上升，许多专家称出口放缓将有助平衡经济以确保更好的可持续发展。
中国最权威经济学家之一，北京大学的宋国青说：“去年贸易盈余达到了GDP的11% - 它必需调整。”
宋教授说:“经济放缓的速度有可能过快，但通胀也会维持一段时间，在我看这政策差不多的对头了。”
中国月计的巨大贸易盈余(223亿美元)已经在6月份下降到214亿美元, 而6月份季度值则下降至581亿美元 – 比去年同期下降了11.9%。
提前获悉的数字显示, 今年截至6月份的消费物价上升了7.1%, 比今年较早前的8.7%峰顶已经回落。
粮价似乎已达顶点，而政府成功利用粮食和能源的补贴和价格管制, 遏止进口价格的飙升。
下周即将公布的国民生产总值(GDP)数据很可能显示增长放缓到10%左右。
黄一平博士说：“小幅度的放缓是件好事。关键是多少。”
