【08.10.26美国firedoglake】未来就是中国

妩人少将

【08.10.26美国firedoglake】未来就是中国
【原文标题】The Future Is China
【原文标题】未来就是中国
【登载媒体】美国 firedoglake 网站
【原文地址链接】http://firedoglake.com/2008/10/26/the-future-is-china/
【译者】妩人少将   个人原创翻译
【声明】本翻译仅供Anti-CNN使用，谢绝转载
【英文原文】

The Future Is China
By: Ian Welsh Sunday October 26, 2008 12:00 pm  28
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The Water Cube
China is forecast to become the world's largest manufacturer next year, overtaking the US and ending the US's run of over a century in the top spot. The US took first place from Britain in the 1890's, and held it for a little over a hundred and ten years.

Let no one tell you that manufacturing is not more important than other parts of the economy in geopolitics. The ability to produce large amounts of stuff, combined with a large population, is two-thirds of what makes a modern great power. (The third part is an effective military culture.) Other sectors, such as the financial sector, are important to the extent that they support manufacturing and the ability to project force.

China has the world's largest internet. Its number of patents is growing faster than any other nation, and Chinese love being engineers, unlike in the US, where being a lawyer or MBA or maybe a doctor is considered the route to a good life. This, again, is eerily similar to the period when America broke down the doors: engineers were worshiped, scientists were respected and everyone wanted to be an inventor. In the old days Chinese came to America to become scientists and engineers, then stayed. Now they come and go back, and meanwhile Chinese universities pump out huge classes of both as well.

And great things are happening in China, such as their plan to become the world's leader in wind power by 2020 (which they are pumping huge amounts of money into) or their high speed trains, or experimental buildings such as the water cube or the bird's nest. Chengdu is creating a complex of buildings with sliced-geometry which are porous to sunlight. If you're an architect who wants to do big groundbreaking projects the best places in the world right now are Dubai or China. Certainly not the United States, where there is no money and no appetite.


Yes, China has a lot of problems. They're almost endless. But they also have an endless appetite for thinking big about how to solve their problems. That appetite is missing in the US. When I read policy proposals from both campaigns my response is usually as follows:

McCain: this policy, if followed, would be disastrous.

Obama: not a bad policy, but either doesn't go far enough or doesn't tackle the fundamental problem (for example, Obama's health care plans won't reduce costs enough, and without that, it's just a finger in the dike.)

The Chinese also think long term. They were aggressively buying up oil resources ten years ago when oil was under 20 dollars a barrel, and they were doing so at what then seemed like crazy prices (but which now seem like steals).

This new century is not going to belong to America. It is not going to belong to Japan. It's not yet clear that it'll belong to China, but they're a contender. America, though it is a continental power and will remain a Great Power will lose superpower status and once lost, will not regain it in our lifetimes.

At the end of the day, you can juggle as many pieces of paper as you want; you can play land-swap games with property and pretend that's real wealth, but in post industrial revolution societies, real wealth is what you can produce. China's far from as rich as the US on per-capita measures, but in gross terms, it's pulling even. And once it does it will just keep pulling away. And America's elites, who have helped it all along the way, offshoring and outsourcing as much industrial capacity to China as they could in exchange for labor arbitrage profits, will continue to help China preferentially over the US, because they understand that China is the future, that its market will be bigger than the American market, and that if you want to play in the big leagues, that's going to mean playing in China.

All of this may come tumbling down due to global warming and various resource shortages, mind you. China is running the same playbook that America ran, that Japan ran, that every Asian Tiger ran. It's running it fast, but time may be running out. But there are signs they recognize this, as with the wind power plan, and are moving to adjust. Everyone in the world is going to face the same problems. The future belongs to the nation or nations which adjust best, who create the new model economy which works within the new resource constraints in a world where resources don't come from an endless cornucopia. So far Europe, China, Japan and many other nations are ahead of the US in this race.

And those who don't complete the track will pay a fearful price because the old economy, based on cheap hydrocarbons, a huge food surfeit and cheap resources, will no longer be viable.

中文翻译；

中国就是未来

作者 伊恩   威尔士  2008年10月二十六日星期日

中国预计明年将取代美国成为世界最大的制造工厂，结束一个多世纪以来美国始终雄踞第一的时代。美国1890年从英国手中夺得了（制造）第一名的位置，并保持了超过一百一十年的时间。

不要听信任何人告诉你的，那些制造业在地缘政治领域中并不比经济的其他方面更加重要的言论。要知道，制造庞大数量物质的能力，再加上众多的人口，是构成一个现代化强国所需要条件的三分之二。（另外的三分之一是有效的军事文化。）其他的领域例如金融领域也就只在它们维持制造业和投射武力的能力的方面来说，它们（其他的领域）才是重要的。

中国拥有世界上最大的互联网网络。它的专利数量的增长速度快于其他任何国家，而且中国人热衷于工程师的职业，相反，在美国成为律师、工商管理硕士或者甚至是医生才被认为是满意生活的正途。这也与美国当年打开强盛之门的那段时期是极其相似的：人民崇敬工程师、尊重科学家，每个人都想成为一名发明家。在过去的时候中国人来美国谋求成为科学家和工程师，然后他们留了下来。而现在他们回到祖国，同一时期中国的大学也培养了大量的这方面人才。


伟大的事件现在正在中国发生，比如他们到2020年在风力发电上成为世界领先者的计划（他们投入了大量的资金在这方面）、高速列车计划、或者是如水立方或鸟巢一样的实验性建筑的建造。成都正在用能穿透阳光的几何构片建设一个建筑群。如果你是一名想做重要突破性项目的建筑师，那么当前你发挥舞台的最佳地点是迪拜和中国。毫无疑问不是美国，在美国，没有钱也没有欲望。

是的，中国一直有着许多问题。而且这些问题几乎是没完没了的。但中国人也有着思考有关如何解决他们那些问题的无止境的欲望。美国失去了这种欲望。当我看到共和两党两位候选人的政策建议后我的回应通常如下：

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麦凯恩：其政策如果实行，那么结果将是灾难性的。
奥巴马：并不是糟糕的政策，但也还远远不够或没有解决根本问题（例如，奥巴马的医疗保健计划将不会在很大程度上消减费用，如果没有做到这点，就好比是在决堤的大坝上用手指抵挡缺口）
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2008-11-20 02:57

中国人有着长远目光。在十年前油价还位于每桶20美元以下的时候他们就积极地购买石油资源，他们在当时以疯了似的价格抢购石油（但是以现在的行情来看这个价格就好像是偷油一样）。


这个新的世纪将不会属于美国，也不会属于日本。目前还不清楚它是否会属于中国，但中国将是其中的一个竞争者。尽管美国是一个大陆性的强权，并且在未来仍将是一个强国，但是它将失去世界超级大国的地位，而且一旦失去，在我们的有生之年，美国都将无法恢复自己曾经的地位。


在付账的时候，你可以如你所想的那样将账单撕成碎片来抵赖，你也可以用房产玩财产互换的游戏，并将其假装为真正的财产，但要了解，在以前的工业革命社会里，真正的财富是你可以生产的东西。中国在人均上远没有美国富裕，但就总额而言，它要更加的接近。一旦它做它仅仅将会将差距拉近。美国的精英们自始至终都在帮助中国，极尽其能地将众多的工业能力离岸或外包到中国，以获取廉价劳动力带来的利润，精英们将继续帮助中国优先于帮助美国，这是因为他们明白中国象征着未来，其市场规模将大于美国市场，而且如果你想在这场超级联赛中分一杯羹，那将意味着一切赛事都将在中国上演。


所有的这些推测都有可能由于全球气候变暖和各种资源枯竭而泯灭，一切取决于你的看法。中国正在上演美国、日本、甚至是亚洲四小龙曾经上演过的相同的剧本。中国快速的演绎着，但是剩下的时间可能不多了。然而有迹象表明，中国已经认识到这一点，就如他们的风力发电计划，中国一直在进行调整。世界上所有的人都将面临同样的问题。未来属于那些调整得最好的国家或国家们，属于那些在资源不是无穷无尽的聚宝盆的世界中，创造可以于新能源允许的范围内运行的新的经济模式的国家。迄今为止这场比赛中，欧洲、中国、日本和许多其他国家都领先于美国。


而那些无法完成这次赛跑的国家将付出可怕的代价，因为构建在廉价的碳氢化合物、庞大的食物过剩和廉价的资源基础上的旧经济将不会再是可行的。

[ 本帖最后由 妩人少将 于 2008-11-20 02:57 编辑 ]

妩人少将

附：部分网友的评论

看看底下一些美国人的言论，真是汗颜，我们要认识到差距。
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neurophius October 26th, 2008 at 12:07 pm 1
wake up, America!

醒醒吧，美利坚！
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Badwater October 26th, 2008 at 12:08 pm 2
China is fortunate to not have burdens like the Republic Party and the Bush family.

没有受到共和党和布什家族的拖累，中国算是交了好运。
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JimWhite October 26th, 2008 at 12:09 pm 3
Bbbbut, aren’t they still commies?

但但但但是，他们仍然是共产主义者吗？
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rwcole October 26th, 2008 at 12:09 pm 4
China is in the low hanging fruit phase of their development. They can produce a pretty good bicycle for well under $100 due primarily to labor cost advantages for example. The industry is neither capital intensive or dependant on innovation- just weld frames and assemble components.
It may get tougher for them as they graduate to other products.

中国正处于他们发展过程中短期可实现的阶段，例如他们可以以低于100美元的劳动力成本优势生产很好的自行车，但是这个行业既不是资本密集也不是依赖于创新的产业，仅仅就是焊接框架和组装部件。
对他们来说要升级生产其他产品可能更加艰难。
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DWBartoo October 26th, 2008 at 12:13 pm 5
Ah, so … Ian.
The inscrutable celestials ARE willing to learn from, AND emulate others.
Whereas we, apparently, in our glorious ‘exceptionalism’ are not.
Whom might we guess is better ‘positioned’, philosophically, for what the future might ‘bring’?
Of course, we are not to worry, Gawd has left his ‘unseen hand’ at our beck and call, at our ‘disposal’, if you will.
Another great post, retelling a history most Americans will have forgotten or never known.
“Once upon a time, children, America also made things, hard as that may be to believe, I assure you it is true. I remember …”

呃，那么...伊恩。（回复作者伊恩的）
不可思议的[天朝]人乐于学习并努力赶上别人。
而显然我们，生活在我们荣耀的“例外论”中的我们不是这样的。
我们以为谁会更居于有利的“位置”呢，冷静的想想，未来将“带来”什么？
当然，我们不必担心，因为如果你愿意，上帝“看不见的手”一直唯我们之命是从，听从我们的“摆布”。
在又一个很久的时间过后，我们将重述那时候大部分美国人可能忘记甚至不知道的一段历史。
“孩子们，曾经有段时间，美国也制造产品，虽然这很难让人相信，但是我向你们保证这是真的。我还记得......”
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dakine01 October 26th, 2008 at 12:14 pm 6
he Chinese also think long term.
The Chinese have seen empires come and go and recognize the cycle of life in most all of its manifestations. We’re total upstarts in comparison.

引用“中国人有着长远的目光”

中国人看惯了王朝的兴衰成败，并且认识到生命在其大部分表现上的轮回循环。

相比之下，我们完全是暴发户。
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LindaR October 26th, 2008 at 12:15 pm 7
And we did it to ourselves.

25 years ago, I was a lone voice in the wilderness crying “Do not buy that silk blouse made in China! Look for the union label!!”
but no . . .


Being The Best Country In the World is more than a slogan. — or does that make me a traitor to say so?

我们给自己酿出的苦果。
25年以前，我一个人在狂野中孤独的呼喊，哭泣着“不要买中国制造的丝绸衬衫！选择有联邦标签的！！”
但是没....
做世界最优秀的国家不仅仅是一个口号。——或者我这样说会不会使我变成一个卖国贼呢？

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LindaR October 26th, 2008 at 12:16 pm 8
In response to rwcole @ 4
except that it is part of their underlying organizational construct to absorb from the rest of the world and make their own.

which includes absorbing lessons already learned

回复4楼rwcole
只可惜这从世界其他地方吸取事物并构建属于自己的，是它基本的有组织性建设的一部分。
这也包括吸收他们学习过的经验教训。
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Rayne October 26th, 2008 at 12:18 pm 9

Thank you for that, Ian. My spouse has quite a bit of work right now, making capital equipment for Chinese firms; once all equipment of this nature designed by U.S. companies is completely installed, the manufacturing migration might be complete and there be nothing they need from us save for our continued consumption, and that consumption is only a stop-gap until they can do all the consumption themselves.

10 and 20 years ago the firms buying this kind of capital equipment were here in the U.S.; they were heavy equipment makers and auto companies with plants across the country, from Pennsylvania and Florida to Texas and Wisconsin.. Not any longer; if his trips abroad are any reflection as to where manufacturing is now located, he’s got 3 trips to China and one trip to India under his belt inside a year. In contrast, trips to U.S. customers in the same period were generally to those with overseas manufacturing, and not to firms with only U.S.-based manufacturing.

The big shoe in U.S. manufacturing may drop soon; rumor through the corporate grapevine is that German radio talked about GM’s likely filing for bankruptcy as early as next week.

谢谢伊恩的文章。我的丈夫现在为中国公司制造固定设备，工作相当忙；一旦所有的由美国公司设计的这种类型的设备被完整地安置，制造业的迁移将可能会完全完成，他们为我们的储蓄支撑着我们的持续消费，而他们并不需要我们提供什么。消费也只是一个权宜之计而已，总有一天他们将自己拉动内需。

10或20年前，公司都在美国这里购买这种固定设备；这些公司都是些在全美国从宾夕法尼亚州和佛罗里达州到得克萨斯州和威斯康星州，拥有工厂的重型设备制造商和汽车公司。现在不再是这样了，如果说我丈夫的的海外旅行反应了制造业现在落座于何处的话，要知道他一年之内到中国去过三次到印度一次。相比之下，同时期他旅程的美国本土客户通常都有着海外制造产业，而不是仅仅拥有总部在美国的制造产业的公司。

美国制造业的刹车将很可能很快落下。据通用公司内流传的小道消息，传闻德国电台谈论那个通用公司很可能最早在下周申请破产保护。

[ 本帖最后由 妩人少将 于 2008-11-20 03:01 编辑 ]

妩人少将

DWBartoo October 26th, 2008 at 12:21 pm 10
In response to rwcole @ 4
Perhaps, but their deep interest in engineering suggests otherwise, as does the swelling of the number of patents held by the Chinese.
Our only ‘advantage’, at the moment rw, is weaponry, but it would be extremely unwise of us to begin an arms-race with anyone, in fact such behavior would be terminal madness.
Of course we must acknowledge that a certain ‘element’ of our society appears to ‘believe’ that they could get ‘off’ on such a scenario …

回复四楼rwcole
或许你说的是，但是他们工程行业浓厚的兴趣显示了其他不同的方面，就好比他们持有专利数量的急剧膨胀一样。
我们在当前仅有的“优势”，就是武器。但我们与别国进行军备竞赛是极其愚蠢的做法，事实上如此（军备竞赛）的行为都将是末日的疯狂。
当然，我们必须承认我们社会的某“一伙人”似乎“认为”他们能够从这样一个剧本中感到兴奋。
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In response to DWBartoo @ 5
please cut the ‘inscrutable celestials’ crap. It’s not politically correct.
I spent a couple of years working in Beijing as an expat, early in shrub II’s reign. I found many of the people I met and the country as a whole to be forward looking, optimistic and, by developing country standards, even fairly transparent (far from inscrutable)… in querying government agencies for information needed to do businses, I actually had very good results.. as good as I get here, which says about everything you need to know. Most people were (justifiably) suspicious about their own government when it comes to respecting (or disrespecting) their rights and angry about the lack of progress or reform in many areas, but also genuinely upbeat about their economy’s continued ability to develop, in terms of education, entrepreneurship, sophistication, technology and growth.
I’m scared. We all should be. And not just of what China will do.. but of our own lack of ability and motivation, under shrub, to face the threat the compete on a global stage.
回复五楼的DWBartoo

少说“不可思议的[天朝]人”的废话，这在言语上是冒犯。
我作为一个外国人在北京工作了几年，早在shrub二世当政的时候（不解，难道是布什二世？）。我发现很多我遇到的人和这个国家一般说来眼光都很前瞻、乐观，并且从发展中国家的标准来说，甚至完全透明的...在商务上因信息需要而质疑政府机构的时候，我确实都能得到满意的答复...发表对你需要知道的一起东西的看法。当政府涉及（或不尊重）他们的权利的时候大部分人（可以被证明的）对他们自己的政府抱有怀疑态度，他们对很多领域缺乏进步或改革感到愤怒，但同时也对自己在发展、培训教育、企业家能力、世故、科技和增长的经济延续能力有着真诚的积极乐观的看法。

我感到惊慌。我们也应该如此的。不是因为中国将要做到的，而是我们自己缺乏能力和动力，在灌木之下（？）面临世界舞台上的竞争的威胁。
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hackworth October 26th, 2008 at 12:22 pm 12
China plans to build 300 Nuclear Plants.
中国计划建造300座核工厂。
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DWBartoo October 26th, 2008 at 12:27 pm 13
In response to Blub @ 11
Sorry to offend you.
I envy your chance to have seen China up close.
And Blub, I far more worried, NOT scared, about our domestic insecurities and silliness.
We have deliberately blown the opportunity of setting good examples befote the world.
Karma is a bitch.
Hope that doesn’t blow the pc meters, Blub.

回复11楼Blub
很抱歉冒犯你。
我羡慕你近距离看到中国的机会。
同时Blub，我更为担心，而不是惊慌，担心我们本国的不安全和愚蠢。
我们故意吹制了在世界面前设立榜样的时机。

aj00

这个，作者很有忧患意识……
但是，美国现在貌似没有作者说得那么不堪呢吧？在新能源应用领域，还是领先我们不少的吧？

灵魂不在

家家都有本难念的经啊。。。

kingwde

这样客观的评论真是太需要学习了，再回忆下咱们国内一些同志的评论，实在不甘苟同！

这也是文化素质的差距，应该说，我国的网络过于普遍，混杂的人在充数，随意发泄自己的不

满和愤怒！估计愤青也就是这么来的吧

砍柴翁

原帖由 aj00 于 2008-11-20 03:26 发表
这个，作者很有忧患意识……
但是，美国现在貌似没有作者说得那么不堪呢吧？在新能源应用领域，还是领先我们不少的吧？

在新能源领域我们的太阳能技术领先世界！

sdbjcoolboy

n年前，中国有只熊猫要送给美国一家公园，那个公园为这只熊猫专门开辟了网站，于是我就上了这个网站的BBS上看了一下，结果大吃一惊。几乎所有的评论都是非常友好的，而且那种友好程度甚至都让人感觉到“虚假”，“什么欢迎你来这里安家，我太希望见到你了”“我的女儿迫不及待的想见到你了，你一定很可爱”，我不知道美国的网管是否会删贴，从那次以后我对美国网民的素质真是很佩服。

晴川历历

UMMMM....THE FUTURE IS CHINA ----TO PAY ALL OUR LOAN/DEBIT....THE CRISIS ALREADY PROVED IT

古禾

原帖由 sdbjcoolboy 于 2008-11-20 04:52 发表
n年前，中国有只熊猫要送给美国一家公园，那个公园为这只熊猫专门开辟了网站，于是我就上了这个网站的BBS上看了一下，结果大吃一惊。几乎所有的评论都是非常友好的，而且那种友好程度甚至都让人感觉到“虚假”，“什么欢迎你来这 ...

到台湾绿营的网站看一看会明白差距。

西山雪

看这些回帖感觉美国还是世界上最强大的国家，至少现在还是吧

轰炸东京

高素质的人是国家振兴的基础,看看美国人的评论吧,比AC里某些愤愤强太多

Einstein

也许是那句"站得高才能看的远",至少现在美国还有傲视群雄的资本.

goodamanda

我也同意12楼的观点
不由自主想到印度类似贴的回复,跟国内愤愤是一模两样
人与人是不同的,国民与国民也是不同的,强国与非强国之间还是有差剧的
希望中国的民众有朝一日也能达到这种平均水平

long-cn

希望在这里多出现这些好的原创的翻译