【2008.10.20 经济学家杂志】中国经济增长放缓

宜笑

http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=12451752&mode=comment&intent=postTop
Slower boat from China
Oct 20th 2008 | GUANGZHOU
From Economist.com
Growth slows in China, as the global economic slump takes its toll 由于全球经济衰退造成损失，中国经济增长放缓

PERHAPS it should not be considered surprising. On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months (which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003. Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West. It is now becoming necessary, on a near daily basis, to re-evaluate just how much independence its economy enjoys.
It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems. This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation. For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound. Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials. All of that has now reversed. There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery.
One of the most important events in the sales calendar for China is the historic Canton Trade Fair, which brings together a vast number of the country’s manufacturers with swarms of buyers from around the world. The first part of the autumn session ended on October 19th and there was little happy news to report. In a good year hotels will double rates and turn away guests. This time around, rates were high but rooms were abundant. The fair itself was far from empty but the crowds, by usual standards, were thin, with a notable absence of Americans and Europeans, and many complaints about a lack of orders. A year ago sellers demanded escalation clauses in their contracts because of rising commodity prices. This time a buyer from an Oman construction-materials company said that he was receiving a similar benefit from any price decline, and prices, he added, were falling much faster now than they had been rising then.
China’s slowing cannot, however, be blamed on exports alone. There were warning signs all over the place, says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, pointing to investment, consumption (despite a nominal, year-on-year rise in retail sales in September of 23%) and government spending. Sales of cars, clothing, air tickets and property have all fallen; production of steel has declined too. A bit, but only a bit, of this could be attributed to planned shut-downs at the time of the Olympics.
If there is any cause for optimism it is that some of the drag was the result of the government’s own efforts in the past year—a different era, in hindsight—to prevent overheating. In this, there is some hope. China’s financial position is not perfect, as non-performing loans are rising and some city banks are suspected of having problems, but there appears to be substantial room to relax fiscal and monetary policies. Inflation is declining. The big national banks appear to be in good condition, with abundant liquidity because of lending caps that have become increasingly stringent over the past two years. China’s government is in a strong financial position. Savings rates for the Chinese are high.
As a result, there is abundant room for more aggressive fiscal policies, continuance—if not expansion—of credit, and domestic growth in consumption. Rumours of the potential government response are widespread. Export-targeted tax rebates that were repealed last year will be resumed. Also in the pipeline is the removal of transaction fees on sales of property. Bigger government spending on water and transport projects is also expected. All this should stimulate demand, if not immediately. Collectively, these actions should mitigate some of the impact of the global downturn, but mitigate is not the same as offset. If the global panic has done nothing else, it has been brilliant at revealing the collective dependency of even the fastest developing economy on the developed world’s prosperity.

俺不是专业学中文滴，但响应号召也试着翻译一些外媒文章，想为AC做点贡献，呵呵。
       翻译得慢，估计得明天弄完，稍安勿躁，嘻嘻，各位见谅。


中文译文（谢谢宜笑筒子的编译）:

       也许这可能并不令人感到惊讶。10月20号星期一中国国家统计局宣布，中国第三季度经济增长为上年同期数字的9%，是2003年至今最低的。这个数字按美国或欧洲的标准来看是不错的，但中国此前3个月的增长是10.1%，（而这个数字也低于前一个季度）。人们希望中国经济能减弱来自西方的“核弹震波”，但这个希望在渐渐消失，人们的预期适度的降低了。近几天来我们发觉重新评估中国经济的独立程度变得越来越有必要。


       越来越难说中国能否避免全球金融和经济危机的影响。仅仅这个月，就有2家大公司倒闭，它们分别是玩具厂Smart Union Group和车轮厂FerroChina。其实上千家，或者上万家公司已经无声地关闭了，因为破产会引起公众注意的公司很少。在今年的早些时候，中国南部出现人工慌，面对靴子订单或其它需要大量人工和材料的产品的订单，鞋厂力不从心。而现在一切都倒过来了，现在工人多而订单少，而且没有恢复的迹象。


       中国的贸易大事之一是著名的广交会，期间中国很多制造商和世界各地的买主都会云集于此。本次秋季广交会第一期于10月19日结束，没有什么好消息值得报道。兴旺的时候旅馆价格会双倍增长以至于拒一些顾客于门外。而这次，旅馆价格依然很高可入住率却很低。虽然广交会并非冷清到空荡荡的程度，但按以往的标准来看，参展的人少了很多。很多欧美客户都没有来。常有缺少订单的抱怨声。一年前，由于物价上涨，卖主们要求在他们合同中增加价格自动调整条款。这次，阿曼的一个建材公司的买主说他并没有从价格下跌中获得好处。他又补充说现在降价的速度比以前提价的速度还快。


       然而中国增长放慢不能只归咎于出口。渣打银行的经济学家Stephen Green说，投资、消费（尽管只是名义上的，9月份零售业的增长是上年同期的23%）和政府开支这些领域到处都有警示的迹象。汽车、服装、航空和房地产的销售都减少了。钢的产量也下降了，而奥运期间的停产影响仅仅是很小的一部分。


       如果有任何可以乐观的理由，那就是经济放缓的原因部分是由于中国政府在去年（一个不同以往的时期, 中国政府在事后开始醒悟）开始的努力防止经济过热努力的成果。从这可以看到一些希望。中国的金融状况不是很完善，因为不良贷款增加，一些城市的银行被怀疑有问题。但是还是显示有大量的空间来放宽政府财政和金融的政策。通货膨胀在下降。大型国有银行状况良好，有足够的流动性，因为过去两年贷款保护变得越发严格。中国政府有着掌控金融的能力。中国的储蓄率很高。


       结果，更积极的财政政策，持续（如果不膨胀）贷款和国内消费的增长有了很大的空间。关于政府可能的反映的传闻满天飞。去年被撤销的出口退税将恢复。移除房地产贸易的交易费也在准备当中。政府将在水利工程和交通设施上投入更多。这一切应该都会间接地刺激需求。这些行为会减轻一些全球衰退的影响。但减轻和抵消是不同的概念。即使这次全球性的恐慌也许没有想象中的那么巨大，但是它仍然清晰地揭示了发展中国家的经济对发达世界繁荣的共同的依赖，哪怕是发展最快的发展中国家。

[ 本帖最后由 妩人少将 于 2008-10-22 19:19 编辑 ]

v3_devil

占个地，等待翻译！

妩人少将

占楼等待楼主译文大作。吼吼

宜笑

PERHAPS it should not be considered surprising. On Monday October 20th China’s National Bureau of Statistics announced that economic growth in the third quarter was 9% year-on-year, heady by American or European standards, but down from 10.1% in the previous three months (which itself was lower than the quarter before that), and the worst overall since early 2003. Consensus predictions had been for a more modest decline amid fading hope that China’s economy was fundamentally “decoupled” from the West. It is now becoming necessary, on a near daily basis, to re-evaluate just how much independence its economy enjoys.


也许这可能并不令人感到惊讶。10月20号星期一中国国家统计局宣布，中国第三季度经济增长为上年同期数字的9%，是2003年至今最低的。这个数字按美国或欧洲的标准来看是不错的，但中国此前3个月的增长是10.1%，（而这个数字也低于前一个季度）。人们希望中国经济能减弱来自西方的“核弹震波”，但这个希望在渐渐消失，人们的预期适度的降低了。近几天来我们发觉重新评估中国经济的独立程度变得越来越有必要。


It is growing harder to say that China is relatively immune from global financial and economic problems. This month alone, two big companies, Smart Union Group, a toymaker, and FerroChina, a steel producer, have gone into liquidation. For the rare company whose closing receives publicity, thousands, if not tens of thousands, shut without a sound. Early this year, southern China suffered from shortages of workers and shoe factories were discouraging orders of boots or any other product that required lots of work and materials. All of that has now reversed. There is a surplus of workers and an absence of orders, with no sign of any recovery.


越来越难说中国能否避免全球金融和经济危机的影响。仅仅这个月，就有2家大公司倒闭，它们分别是玩具厂Smart Union Group和车轮厂FerroChina。其实上千家，或者上万家公司已经无声地关闭了，因为破产会引起公众注意的公司很少。在今年的早些时候，中国南部出现人工慌，面对靴子订单或其它需要大量人工和材料的产品的订单，鞋厂力不从心。而现在一切都倒过来了，现在工人多而订单少，而且没有恢复的迹象。


One of the most important events in the sales calendar for China is the historic Canton Trade Fair, which brings together a vast number of the country’s manufacturers with swarms of buyers from around the world. The first part of the autumn session ended on October 19th and there was little happy news to report. In a good year hotels will double rates and turn away guests. This time around, rates were high but rooms were abundant. The fair itself was far from empty but the crowds, by usual standards, were thin, with a notable absence of Americans and Europeans, and many complaints about a lack of orders. A year ago sellers demanded escalation clauses in their contracts because of rising commodity prices. This time a buyer from an Oman construction-materials company said that he was receiving a similar benefit from any price decline, and prices, he added, were falling much faster now than they had been rising then.


中国的贸易大事之一是著名的广交会，期间中国很多制造商和世界各地的买主都会云集于此。本次秋季广交会第一期于10月19日结束，没有什么好消息值得报道。兴旺的时候旅馆价格会双倍增长以至于拒一些顾客于门外。而这次，旅馆价格依然很高可入住率却很低。虽然广交会并非冷清到空荡荡的程度，但按以往的标准来看，参展的人少了很多。很多欧美客户都没有来。常有缺少订单的抱怨声。一年前，由于物价上涨，卖主们要求在他们合同中增加价格自动调整条款。这次，阿曼的一个建材公司的买主说他并没有从价格下跌中获得好处。他又补充说现在降价的速度比以前提价的速度还快。


China’s slowing cannot, however, be blamed on exports alone. There were warning signs all over the place, says Stephen Green, an economist at Standard Chartered, pointing to investment, consumption (despite a nominal, year-on-year rise in retail sales in September of 23%) and government spending. Sales of cars, clothing, air tickets and property have all fallen; production of steel has declined too. A bit, but only a bit, of this could be attributed to planned shut-downs at the time of the Olympics.


然而中国增长放慢不能只归咎于出口。渣打银行的经济学家Stephen Green说，投资、消费（尽管只是名义上的，9月份零售业的增长是上年同期的23%）和政府开支这些领域到处都有警示的迹象。汽车、服装、航空和房地产的销售都减少了。钢的产量也下降了，而奥运期间的停产影响仅仅是很小的一部分。


If there is any cause for optimism it is that some of the drag was the result of the government’s own efforts in the past year—a different era, in hindsight—to prevent overheating. In this, there is some hope. China’s financial position is not perfect, as non-performing loans are rising and some city banks are suspected of having problems, but there appears to be substantial room to relax fiscal and monetary policies. Inflation is declining. The big national banks appear to be in good condition, with abundant liquidity because of lending caps that have become increasingly stringent over the past two years. China’s government is in a strong financial position. Savings rates for the Chinese are high.


如果有任何可以乐观的理由，那就是经济放缓的原因部分是由于中国政府在去年（一个不同以往的时期, 中国政府在事后开始醒悟）开始的努力防止经济过热努力的成果。从这可以看到一些希望。中国的金融状况不是很完善，因为不良贷款增加，一些城市的银行被怀疑有问题。但是还是显示有大量的空间来放宽政府财政和金融的政策。通货膨胀在下降。大型国有银行状况良好，有足够的流动性，因为过去两年贷款保护变得越发严格。中国政府有着掌控金融的能力。中国的储蓄率很高。



As a result, there is abundant room for more aggressive fiscal policies, continuance—if not expansion—
of credit, and domestic growth in consumption. Rumours of the potential government response are widespread. Export-targeted tax rebates that were repealed last year will be resumed. Also in the pipeline is the removal of transaction fees on sales of property. Bigger government spending on water and transport projects is also expected. All this should stimulate demand, if not immediately. Collectively, these actions should mitigate some of the impact of the global downturn, but mitigate is not the same as offset. If the global panic has done nothing else, it has been brilliant at revealing the collective dependency of even the fastest developing economy on the developed world’s prosperity.


结果，更积极的财政政策，持续（如果不膨胀）贷款和国内消费的增长有了很大的空间。关于政府可能的反映的传闻满天飞。去年被撤销的出口退税将恢复。移除房地产贸易的交易费也在准备当中。政府将在水利工程和交通设施上投入更多。这一切应该都会间接地刺激需求。这些行为会减轻一些全球衰退的影响。但减轻和抵消是不同的概念。

即使这次全球性的恐慌也许没有想象中的那么巨大，但是它仍然清晰地揭示了发展中国家的经济对发达世界繁荣的共同的依赖，哪怕是发展最快的发展中国家。



[ 本帖最后由 妩人少将 于 2008-10-22 19:11 编辑 ]

宜笑

偶滴英语太烂了，还得麻烦妩人MM批评指正，免得误人子弟。

在此向妩人版版致以诚挚的谢意！版版对人如春天般滴温暖哦

翻译果然不是个容易的活，AC的翻译们辛苦了！我决定以后每看AC原创翻译都后敬献鲜花一支！

妩人少将

原帖由 宜笑 于 2008-10-22 19:02 发表
偶滴英语太烂了，还得麻烦妩人MM批评指正，免得误人子弟。

在此向妩人版版致以诚挚的谢意！版版对人如春天般滴温暖哦

翻译果然不是个容易的活，AC的翻译们辛苦了！我决定以后每看AC原创翻译都后敬献鲜花一支 ...

汗谢谢支持，宜笑筒子的翻译很不错，有兴趣的话可以加入编译组呢。:)

宜笑

呵呵，谢谢版版鼓励！感觉好幸福啊

妩人少将

原帖由 宜笑 于 2008-10-22 19:24 发表
呵呵，谢谢版版鼓励！感觉好幸福啊

呵呵，帮可爱的宜笑MM顶顶帖子。

v3_devil

偶这个文盲终于看懂了,顶下

wlwjwxy

這么多美女

dakelv

鼓励一下！

妩人少将

AC的编译队伍一天天装大，感动中泪奔中