【08.10.10 法新社】中国的货币被大大地低估了

红山茶

【原文标题】China's currency 'substantially undervalued': IMF
【原文标题】国际货币基金组织：中国的货币被大大地低估了


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【译者】红山茶
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【原文】

WASHINGTON (AFP) — China's currency remains "substantially undervalued", the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday, arguing that greater exchange rate flexibility would benefit the Asian giant.

In its half-yearly World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said a more flexible yuan, or renminbi, would help China shift growth momentum towards domestic sources and make its monetary policy more effective.

"In the IMF staff's view, the renminbi remains substantially undervalued relative to medium-term fundamentals," the report said.

The IMF further predicted 9.7 percent economic growth for China in 2008 and 9.3 percent in 2009, down significantly from 11.9 percent in 2007, saying this was "partly because of slowing exports".

Even so, it argued China's heavily export-dependent economy would be better off if it allowed its currency to rise further.

"Progress needs to continue toward appreciation of the renminbi as part of China's broader strategy to shift the sources of growth toward internal demand and to increase the effectiveness of monetary policy," it said.

Chinese policy-makers have said repeatedly they aim for domestic factors, especially consumer spending, to play a bigger role in creating growth.

The IMF also argued in its report that the Chinese government would have greater freedom to carry out monetary policies with a more flexible yuan.

"The authorities have used administrative and prudential measures in an effort to limit credit growth, but allowing greater exchange rate flexibility would increase the room for a more independent monetary policy," it said.

The IMF also argued that a strengthened Chinese currency could aid efforts to address global imbalances such as a large US current account deficit.

In its previous World Economic Outlook report, issued in April, the IMF also called for a stronger yuan.

But in the six months that have passed since then, China's nominal exchange rate has not moved much.

Chinese economists have argued that Beijing cannot afford to let its currency rise too quickly while Chinese exporters -- major employers and therefore politically crucial -- are faced with unprecedented challenges.

Not only are the exporters up against weakening demand from major markets such as the United States, but they also have to cope with rising prices, especially of energy.
China has in the past tended to shrug off IMF calls to loosen restrictions on its exchange rate.

Last year, Vice Finance Minister Li Yong said the Fund should not put too much emphasis on the exact exchange rates of the currencies of member nations.

China moved its currency away from a peg to the US dollar in July 2005, and has since allowed it to strengthen by more than 15 percent against the greenback.

   周三，国际货币基金组织表示中国货币一直被显著地低估，并且认为这个亚洲巨人会得益于更具弹性的汇率。

   在每半年出版的《世界经济远景展望报告》中，国际货币基金组织声称：更灵活的“元”，或者说人民币，将有助于中国的增长势头向内需方向发展，同时使其货币政策更行之有效。

   报告中声称：国际货币基金组织官员认为，相对于中期原理，人民币长期被显著低估。

   国际货币基金组织进一步预测——2008年中国的经济增长率为9.7%，2009年为9.3%，比2007年的11.9%明显下降，而其中部分原因就是出口减缓。

   尽管如此，国际货币基金组织仍然认为：如果中国让其货币进一步升值，中国严重的出口依赖经济将会变得更好。

   “作为中国增长向内需转变和提高货币政策有效性的大战略的组成部分，人民币升值需要继续进行下去，”国际货币基金组织如此表示。

   中国的决策者反复表示，他们的目标是国内因素在经济增长中起着越来越重要的作用，尤其是像消费开支。

   国际货币基金组织在其报告中还表示：一个更灵活的（人民币）元会使中国政府实现货币政策的自由度更大。

   其中还表示，“当局已经谨慎地运用行政手段来限制信贷增长，但是若是允许更大的灵活汇率，将会为更独立的货币政策扩大空间。”

   国际货币基金组织还认为，加强中国货币可以为解决全球失衡问题进行支援，如美国巨额的经常项目赤字。

   在其四月份出版的《世界经济远景展望报告》中，国际货币基金组织也曾呼吁坚挺的（人民币）元。

   然而，在那六个月之后，中国的名义汇率没有太大变化。

   中国的经济学家认为，中国承受不了货币过快升值，因此在中国的主要雇主——出口商们在关键政策上面临空前的挑战。

   出口商们不仅面临主要市场需求的削弱，比如美国，而且他们还要应对物价上涨，特别是能源价格上涨。过去，中国总是对国际货币基金组织要其放宽汇率限制的要求置之不理。

   去年，财政部副部长李勇表示，基金组织不应该过于强调成员国之间货币的精准汇率（是多少）。

   2005年6月，中国取消了人民币钉住美元的汇率机制。从那以后，中国允许其货币对美元汇率上升15%。


[ 本帖最后由 妩人少将 于 2008-10-13 14:49 编辑 ]